Scoop’s Views

When Hurricane Katrina was heading toward New Orleans, Louisiana just over three years ago, many residents were shoo’ing off warning to evacuate the city and other areas. In the case of Hurricane Gustav, estimates were for severe flooding and possible levy breaks. In essence, pretty much a repeat of Hurricane Katrina. Fortunately, for taxpayers around country, as well as residents of the areas where the hurricane made landfall, the hurricane didn’t live up to its projections.

With Hurricane Ike bearing down on the South Texas to Louisiana coast, evacuation orders for many towns have been issued, including in Galveston, Texas, which saw 16,000 people die in a hurricane in 1901. Galveston now has 15-foot storm walls to protect the city, which is basically bowl-shaped, but the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service are saying storm surges could be as high as 20 feet – five feet over the storm walls.

Even with evacuation orders, not to mention the monstrous size of Hurricane Ike – which at 10:40 a.m. Eastern Time (-0500), the storm almost shrouds the entire Gulf of Mexico in satellite images. That’s bigger than Hurricane Katrina. It’s currently a category 2 storm with wind speeds of 105 miles an hour.

Right now, Hurricane Ike’s aftermath, with the actual hurricane expected to make landfill overnight tonight, is being likened to a surge tsunami: large walls of water flooding and pounding the coast.

In light of the size, as well as its activities, the National Weather Service issued a new warning to residents in the potential impact areas: Get out now or face certain death.

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS... AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE.
PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE
FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH.
MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON
THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT
AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...
SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD
PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER
LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING
CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING
WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...
INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

 ... 

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE
AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY. STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE
UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL
WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE
UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR
MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS
WILL FAIL. PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL
PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT
STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT
ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING
AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN
HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE
DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES. NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH
ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL
LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE
HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE
SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND
IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED
GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

Even with that warning, people are pushing aside sage advice, saying they will “weather it out.” That is simply stupidity at its best.

Right this minute, though, six oil workers are reportedly trapped at a refinery due to flooding.

While talking about a refinery, don’t forget that all oil refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as along the Gulf coast, have all been shut down. That means gas prices are going to increase, yet again, all around the nation, as a direct result. Chemical manufacturing plants, such as BASF, that are located in the potential impact area have all been shut down, as well.

Remember, these same type of warnings were in place – well, similar ones, anyway, without the warning of death – during Hurricane Katrina. In the case of Hurricane Ike, as was the case with Hurricane Katrina, there was sufficient time for evacuation, yet afterward many people rose up, criticizing the local, state, and federal governments for not providing transportation resources to tens of thousands of people. I still scratch my head over that one. When did personal safety become the responsibility of the government.

Prior to Hurricane Katrina, your personal safety, in terms of providing able-bodied adults, with transportation during an evacuation, wasn’t the responsibility of the government. Since personal safety is on an individual basis, that’s where the responsibility rested: with the individual. Since Katrina though, with many accusations flung far and wide about racial and economic discrimination, the government has taken on yet more chores they must do in preparation for evacuations: provide transportation. That’s a sad commentary in itself, showing how lazy some able-bodied adults have become.

It’s sad when people opt to ignore warnings that are intended to protect them. Sure, like in the case of Hurricane Hanna, it was a storm that basically fell apart, though as Tropical Storm Hanna, it did cause some water and wind damage to the East Coast of the United States. Overall, the country escaped unscathed from Hurricane Hanna.

In the case of Hurricane Gustav, which was expected to be just as severe, if not moreso, than Hurricane Katrina, that storm fortunately did not live up to the forecasts, either. Almost all residents – except for an estimated 10,000 – did evacuate New Orleans, as ordered by the mandatory evacuation orders. Though these people spent money on gasoline, food, and possibly lodging elsewhere for a few days, it was well worth the cost if you consider the alternative. If Hurricane Gustav did live up to the forecasts, many would have been dead, most likely.

Look back at the track record the National Weather Service has built upon since 1870. Sure, the National Weather Service does, according to some, drop the ball sometimes, such as in the case of Hurricane Hanna, but the weather is part of nature, not something easily controlled by mankind. The science of weather forecasting is just that: a science. It’s not a precise art, but, for the most part, the National Weather Service does hit the nail on its proverbial head most of the time, especially when it comes to the major storms. When the National Weather Service steps up, issues warnings, especially strong warnings, there is a reason.

For people to ignore those warnings, saying, “I stuck it out through past hurricanes” is simply asinine. I’ve been caught driving in blizzards. I’ve driven on black ice, and I’ve driven down steep, muddy mountain roads. Just because I’ve done that stuff in the past, without incident, doesn’t mean I want to try my luck by doing it again. If I had to, I would, but pressing your luck for no reason at all is stupid.

The people who opt to ignore the evacuation orders and remain in their homes will expect and demand the Coast Guard, the military, the police or fire department, or some other group to save them from drowning. They have no reservations demanding others put their lives at risk to save their life, despite the fact they were ordered to leave. In the case of Hurricane Ike, the warnings are clear: leave or risk death. The hour of the storm is fast-approaching, so people who haven’t evacuated yet better leave soon. If they don’t, they may not get rescued, and in the end, they will have only themselves to blame.

The one thing I wish all the people evacuating would do, especially those leaving in their own vehicles, is to take their pets with them. Far too often stray animals – most of which are obviously pets – are found after disasters and evacuations. People think of themselves, but they leave the family dog to fend for itself in a locked house. That’s a horrible way to treat an adopted member of the family.

No matter what else, people throughout the country will be praying over the next several days for the health, safety, and welfare of those people whose lives are impacted by Hurricane Ike.